2019 Fantasy Baseball Preview and Projections – Shortstop

Welcome back to Fantasy Baseball Now! The 2019 season begins next week and in earnest on Thursday, March 28, and over the next week we’re going to be posting our player projections by position.

Today, we’re going to cover the top 41 players at Shortstop, delivering full 5×5 projections and tiered rankings. This is the fifth position we’ve covered, and you can read the other four here:

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Third Base

We’ll have Outfield/DH, Starting Pitchers, and Relief Pitchers posted in the next 2-3 days. Additionally, the daily version of the Fantasy Baseball Now newsletter will return on Friday, March 29. Subscribe now by emailing fantasybbnow@gmail.com and putting “Subscribe to FB Now” in the subject line. You’ll receive daily insight on every game, as well as DFS and gambling advice, every day in your inbox by 8 a.m. Eastern time.

Here are the projections for Shortstop. Tiered rankings and analysis follows.

First Name Last Name AB H HR  RBI SB AVG
Trea Turner 635 178 102 19 74 46 0.280
Francisco Lindor 583 166 102 31 82 20 0.284
Manny Machado 631 181 91 35 103 11 0.287
Javy Baez 615 171 92 30 100 18 0.278
Trevor Story 593 161 85 34 101 19 0.271
Alex Bregman 588 166 99 28 97 10 0.283
Adalberto Mondesi 540 136 73 17 64 39 0.252
Jean Segura 611 181 92 13 62 23 0.296
Xander Bogaerts 572 160 83 19 86 12 0.280
Gleyber Torres 547 147 74 25 90 10 0.269
Jose Peraza 634 177 79 13 59 26 0.279
Carlos Correa 554 149 85 24 93 5 0.268
Corey Seager 530 154 83 21 74 4 0.291
Tim Anderson 581 146 76 18 62 22 0.252
Amed Rosario 566 147 74 11 56 24 0.260
Marcus Semien 595 149 82 17 69 13 0.251
Elvis Andrus 574 157 76 11 61 16 0.274
Jorge Polanco 572 155 68 13 73 13 0.271
Andrelton Simmons 555 157 68 11 68 12 0.284
Eduardo Escobar 569 149 72 22 80 4 0.261
Jurickson Profar 538 136 76 18 69 9 0.254
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 547 146 64 19 75 6 0.267
Chris Taylor 510 132 77 16 61 11 0.258
Willy Adames 554 143 76 14 63 11 0.258
Asdrubal Cabrera 517 139 69 20 68 2 0.268
Garrett Hampson 440 120 57 7 37 25 0.274
Marwin Gonzalez 446 119 58 17 65 5 0.267
Brandon Crawford 548 141 63 15 67 4 0.257
Zack Cozart 476 122 70 17 57 3 0.256
Paul DeJong 417 106 58 20 63 1 0.254
Orlando Arcia 522 132 54 10 51 12 0.253
Nick Ahmed 497 119 57 15 60 6 0.240
JT Riddle 552 135 55 14 65 3 0.245
Daniel Robertson 446 110 61 13 51 4 0.246
Tim Beckham 450 112 55 15 47 4 0.249
Jose Iglesias 437 114 48 5 46 11 0.261
Freddy Galvis 444 109 47 10 47 8 0.246
Dansby Swanson 460 111 50 12 50 7 0.241
Fernando Tatis Jr. 300 73 43 11 32 9 0.243
Didi Gregorius 255 69 38 12 40 4 0.271
Scott Kingery 326 80 42 8 31 10 0.244

Tier 1
1. Trea Turner

Even before news broke of that Nats’ goal to have Turner to attempt 75-80 steals this year, he stood in this tier along with the player who we have ranked at the top of tier two. No other player in the league offers his level of upside in steals and runs scored, and there’s a case to be made to select him third overall if you’re confident you can find cheap power sources at bargains during your draft or auction.

Tier 2
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Manny Machado
4. Javy Baez
5. Trevor Story

Lindor seems to be progressing well in his return from a calf strain. No other hitter at this position, including Turner, offers the package of safety and five-category production that a healthy Lindor does. If he falls to the second round of your 12-team league, take him.

Tier 3
6. Alex Bregman

Our projection could be a little light on Bregman, but we want to see a full season of health and elite production before we take him over any of the guys in tier two. That said, if we’re talking about Bregman as a top-five overall pick next season, it wouldn’t be all that surprising.

Tier 4
7. Adalberto Mondesi
8. Jean Segura

Mondesi is essentially a high-risk version of Turner; we’ve seen skill sets like his bust horribly in recent years (see Villar, Jonathan), but the Royals have absolutely no reason to sit him even if he strikes out at a prolific pace and gets on base at a sub-.300 clip. Segura is a smart alternative to Mondesi that you can get 15-25 picks later; he’ll be hitting at the top of a stacked Phillies lineup, and even if he only gives you 17-20 steals, he’s going to be an elite source of runs and batting average.

Tier 5
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gleyber Torres
11. Jose Peraza
12. Carlos Correa

A tier of pure upside. We could see any of these four guys being a first rounder next year if they hit their 90th percentile projection. Based on his 90-ish ADP, Peraza is our current favorite, and he stands out amongst this group because of his borderline-elite speed.

Tier 6
13. Corey Seager
14. Tim Anderson

Seager fits in tier 5 in terms of a profile, but his injury history is more severe than, say, Correa’s, which drops him down. He should be ready for Opening Day, though.

Tier 7
15. Amed Rosario
16. Marcus Semien
17. Elvis Andrus
18. Jorge Polanco

Semien and Polanco are our two favorite values at this entire position based on their current ADP range in the 220-240 range. Both offer 15/15 HR/SB baselines with room for more, plus some general safety in their playing time.

Tier 8
19. Andrelton Simmons
20. Eduardo Escobar
21. Jurickson Profar
22. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
23. Chris Taylor
24. Willy Adames

We talked about our love for Escobar in the third base preview, but at short he sits in a tier with guys going 60-100 picks later that we’d be just as happy with. There are some playing time risks, though, especially with Taylor and Adames, who play for teams with incredible infield depth and designs on contention, meaning any early struggles could result in platoons or extended stretches on the bench. Adames is a tiny bit safer, though, as the Rays’ best alternatives at the position are at least a year away from a call up (Wander Franco and Lucius Fox).

Tier 9
25. Asdrubal Cabrera
26. Garrett Hampson

We aren’t buying in on Hampson due to playing time concerns, as the Rockies have a lot of bats looking for time (Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia included). Still, a full season of playing time would likely mean a top 15 finish for Hampson.

Tier 10
27. Marwin Gonzalez
28. Brandon Crawford
29. Zack Cozart
30. Paul DeJong

DeJong’s power upside is real, but we don’t see him getting more than 450 plate appearances without several injuries in the Cards’ lineup. It is insane to us that he is going 30-50 picks before Semien and Polanco when DeJong’s main skill (a 20-25 HR bat) is not hard to find in the player pool.

The Rest
Orlando Arcia, Nick Ahmed, JT Riddle, Daniel Robertson, Tim Beckham, Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, Dansby Swanson, Fernando Tatis Jr., Didi Gregorius, Scott Kingery

2 thoughts on “2019 Fantasy Baseball Preview and Projections – Shortstop”

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