Daily Intel – 5/10/2019

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News From Yesterday’s Slate

Cincinnati Reds – 3
Oakland A’s – 0

  • Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez went 3-for-4 with a solo homer and two doubles. His 11th homer of the year was his lone RBI on the day, and he also scored twice. Suarez has four homers in his last six starts and five homers in his last ten starts, and while those five homers constitute all but three of his hits over that ten day span, it is encouraging to Suarez find some fantasy value in his power despite league average hard hit and exit velocity rates.
  • SP Chris Bassitt was very good again for the A’s, going 7 2/3 innings on just 93 pitches, striking out nine and allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk. Bassitt is showing a good four-pitch mix with his sinker as a feature offering backed by a four-seamer, cutter, and curveball; he’s got a 23-25 mph difference between his sinker/four-seamer and his curve, so we could see him having some staying power as a mixed league asset this year even as opponents start to get a better book on him.
  • DH Khris Davis sat again with a hip issue stemming from a wall collision last weekend, but he should be in the lineup tonight against Cleveland.

Texas Rangers – 2
Houston Astros – 4

  • Houston’s bullpen dominated again last night, with RPs Will Harris, Ryan Pressly, and Roberto Osuna getting clean shots at the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings, respectively, allowing just a single and two walks and striking out three. Harris has four holds and a 1.42 ERA, Pressly’s ERA is perfect with seven holds, and Osuna saved his ninth game and sports a 0.55 ERA. Based on past performance, this is by no means a surprising start to the season for any of these guys, which makes Houston’s starters that much more valuable in daily formats.
  • Rangers OF Hunter Pence hit his sixth homer of the year, a two-run shot that served as the only damage off otherwise-sharp Astros SP Wade Miley, who went six innings and struck out seven. Pence now has 23 RBI and ranks in the 97th percentile or better in StatCast’s expected batting average, slugging, and on-base average metrics. His 16.4 percent K rate and 11 percent walk rate are both far outpacing his performances in recent seasons in both categories. He should be 100 percent owned and started in all formats.
  • Rangers 1B Ronald Guzman was back in the lineup after missing a month with a strained hamstring. He hit eighth and went 0-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout.

Washington Nationals – 6
Los Angeles Dodgers – 0

  • Nats 2B/OF Howie Kendrick drove in four with a homer and a single in five at-bats; he’s succeeded this year thanks in large part to an ability to put the ball in play regularly, with just 12 strikeouts in 89 plate appearances that has resulted in a .325/.383/.588 triple slash. Kendrick, like Hunter Pence, is sitting in the 95th percentile or better in the key expected hitting rates for StatCast, and with the lack of depth and injury issues in Washington’s lineup, he should be in line to play regularly all season. A season finish of .290 with 20 homers, 85 RBI, and 75 runs scored looks well within reach.

Miami Marlins – 1
Chicago Cubs – 4

  • Even the Marlins matchup, at home, couldn’t give SP Yu Darvish the boost he needed to pick up a win. Darvish allowed one run on one hit over four innings, striking out seven…but he only went four innings because he walked six batters! He also allowed four stolen bases, included two to noted speed demons 2B Neil Walker (who has stolen 30 bases in 1,207 games played in his career) and 1B Peter O’Brien, who entered this game with…(checks notes)…zero career steals in 71 games. At this point, Darvish’s starts are best left for the “so bad you can’t look away” quality that comes from a guy who leads the league in walks allowed.

Seattle Mariners – 1
New York Yankees – 3

  • Mariners 2B/OF Dee Gordon was hit on the wrist by a pitch and was incredibly unhappy leaving the game, saying afterward that his wrist was very sore and that he’ll have a scan today after having X-rays last night that were not clear on the extent of the injury. With OF Mallex Smith off to a very good start in Triple-A since being sent down, and extended absence for Smith could result in Smith’s return, though there is a bit of a logjam in the Seattle outfield. 2B/SS Dylan Moore was also hit by a pitch on the wrist in the game after coming in for Gordon, which meant 1B Edwin Encarnacion had to shift to second base in the eighth inning.
  • Yankees SP J.A. Happ picked up the win with five innings of up-and-down work; he didn’t allow a run, but he once again was shaky with his control, walking three and needing 94 pitches to reach his five innings. He struck out seven and allowed one single and no other hits.

San Francisco Giants -1
Colorado Rockies – 12

  • This was a wild, old-school Coors Field game from start to finish, with the Rockies blowing a seven-run lead and managing to fight back thanks to the top five hitters in their order, who all managed to post multiple-hit games. 3B Nolan Arenado led the way for a three-hit effort in four at-bats that included a homer, two walks, three RBI, and two runs scored.
  • Giants 1B/OF Tyler Austin hit his first two homers with the team since coming over from Minnesota a little over a month ago. Those two hits plus a fielder’s choice gave Austin six RBI and bumped his triple slash to .325/.413/.575 in 41 plate appearances so far this year. He could be in line for more playing time in the next few weeks as the Giants fall further out of contention.
  • C Buster Posey will miss the next few days on the 7-day concussion IL, though he said he expects to be ready to go as soon as he’s eligible in the middle of next week.

Los Angeles Angels – 13
Detroit Tigers – 0

  • The Angels used an opener here for SP Felix Pena, and the results were amazing, with Pena entering in the second inning and mowing down the Tigers for the next seven innings, allowing three hits, no walks, no runs, and striking out seven. Pena has worked 16 1/3 innings in his last three outings and has a 20/0 K/BB ratio; he’s another pitch who has bumped up his slider usage considerably, going from 34.8 percent last year to 43 percent this year, and while the pitch is still prone to getting hit out of the yard, it is successful enough in generating misses that this mix could make him relevant in shallow mixed leagues moving forward. For now, he’s a start-to-start guy in 12 team leagues and shallower, and a must-own in all leagues larger than that. He gets the Twins on the road next week and then a two-start week at home with the Twins again followed by Texas.

Atlanta Braves – 2
Arizona Diamondbacks – 3    (10 Innings)

  • Another calamity in the Braves bullpen ended this one, with RP Luke Jackson blowing the save in the ninth by allowing a two-out solo homer to OF David Peralta, then proceeding to put two more batters on via a single and walk before getting out of the inning. RP A.J. Minter started the tenth and needed just seven pitches to allow a walk, a single, and finally a walk-off single to give Arizona the one without Minter recording a single out. He’s 0-4 with a 9.82 ERA.
  • Arizona OF Jarrod Dyson led off and reached base on a single and walk in five plate appearances, taking advantage of both trips to first with stolen bases, his sixth and seventh on the year.
  • C Alex Avila is close to making his return to the lineup for Arizona behind the plate after missing more than a month with a quad issue. It’s going to be hard for him to gain mixed league relevance with both C Carson Kelly and C J.R. Murphy doing good work behind the plate defensively; Kelly has been ok at the plate, but Murphy has been pretty brutal with a .167 average and .620 OPS in 53 plate appearances.

Chicago White Sox – 0
Cleveland Indians – 5       (5 Innings)

  • This one was cut short due to rain, which is a shame for Cleveland SP Carlos Carrasco, who was dominating through five with only a double and a single allowed, no walks, and six strikeouts, including 12 swinging and 13 called strikes on his 63 pitches. Carrasco’s 56/7 K/BB ratio in 40 1/3 innings is more telling of his true performance this year than his 4.91 ERA.

Pittsburgh Pirates – 4
St. Louis Cardinals – 17

  • Two duds in a row for Pirates SP Joe Musgrove, who allowed eight runs on six hits and five walks over three innings last night. This, after allowing five earned runs on eight baserunners in 2 2/3 innings last weekend. Musgrove isn’t doing anything drastically different with his pitch mix, and he’s suffered some bad luck with batted balls, so we’d continue trusting him. He gets a nice two-start week next week with friendly pitchers parks in Arizona and San Diego.

Daily Fantasy Recommendations for Friday, May 10 (NOTE: We use DraftKings prices and format, which means two pitchers are required)

Note: This is for Friday’s Featured slate, which has 14 games starting at 7:05 p.m.

  • Catcher
    • High-priced option: Mitch Garver ($4,700)
    • Low-priced option: Francisco Mejia ($3,300)
  • First Base
    • High-priced option: Mitch Moreland ($4,400)
    • Low-priced option: Renato Núñez ($3,600)
  • Second Base
    • High-priced option: Ryan McMahon ($4,400)
    • Low-priced option: Robinson Canó ($4,600)
  • Third Base
    • High-priced option: Maikel Franco ($4,300)
    • Low-priced option: Zack Cozart ($2,800)
  • Shortstop
    • High-priced option: Tim Anderson ($5,200)
    • Low-priced option: Corey Seager ($3,700)
  • Outfielder (three required)
    • High-priced option 1: Andrew Benintendi ($4,600)
    • High-priced option 2: Andrew McCutchen ($4,500)
    • High-priced option 3: Ian Desmond ($4,300)
    • Low-priced option 1: Melky Cabrera ($3,800)
    • Low-priced option 2: Odubel Herrera ($3,800)
    • Low-priced option 3: Billy McKinney ($3,400)
  • Pitcher (two required)
    • High-priced option 1: Luis Castillo ($10,600)
    • High-priced option 2: German Márquez ($9,100)
    • Low-priced option 1: Pablo López ($8,100)
    • Low-priced option 2: Dereck Rodriguez ($6,300)

Today’s Best Bets

  • Our favorite favorite: Cincinnati Reds (-135) over SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
  • Our favorite underdog: Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) over ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
  • Our over/under play: Texas Rangers/HOUSTON ASTROS UNDER 8.5 Runs

Yesterday: 2-1 (hit on favorite and over/under)
Season: 61-61-1

Note: Best Bets section is for entertainment purposes only.

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